Friday, May 16, 2008

What Are the Odds? The Orphan Works Likelihood of Passage

As we consider the viability of Orphan Works, let's not look at the content of the bill, but rather, a statistical history of the last decade or so to fortell it's likelihood of passage this session.

Here's a breakdown of the number of bills that were introduced into the House and Senate. Where it says "Enrolled", what that means is that, of all the bills introduced, that number is the only # that made it out of Congress to go to the President for his signature, which would make it into a law (or a revision of a current law.) The percentage of bills that make it that far are very small, and an even smaller sub-set of bills actually become law. I've included the last session under President Clinton, and all the sessions under President Bush.

Congress House
Bills
Senate
Bills
#
Enrolled
%
Enrolled
# that
became law
Law %
106th 5681 3285 719 12.7% 580 10.2%
107th 5764 3181 471 8.2% 377 6.5%
108th 5430 3036 590 10.9% 498 9.2%
109th 6432 4105 581 9.0% 482 7.5%
110th* 6040 2995 297 4.9% 230 3.8%

With this in mind, in an election year, where there are many many other priorities for Congress, from the war, to healthcare, taxes, and so forth, and with about 40 or so days left where the Senators and Representatives are in Washington, and conducting business, how likely are we to see this bill pass, or die in committee?

That remains to be seen, of course. No one has a crystal ball. The Senate concluded markup yesterday, with a few amendments, and voted it out of committee unanimously. Next stop, floor debate for both. Stay tuned to C-span for those debates. When we know when they're scheduled, we'll get the details for you.

Hopefully, this will give you an idea as to the likelihood of passage and enactment.
(Continued after the Jump)

* note: 110th is the number, to date.
Source: Library of Congress's Thomas resource.
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1 comments:

Anonymous said...

thanks for presenting such a nice forms and very beautiful presentable logos.

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